March 24th,
2019
Richard’s
brother-in-law was leaving Beira the day Cyclone made landfall. He had gone
there to prepare his son’s warehouse for the incoming storm. As he was leaving
the city, the rains started. The rains continued and the winds picked-up. His
vehicle was almost thrown off the road at a point due to the rains and river
banks breaking. He made the decision to pull-over on a hillside. It was early
evening and he witnessed over a thousand bodies floating down the river. He
slept in his vehicle with other stranded people because the road ahead was
flooded like a river. The following day he walked 25km with thousands of people
also trying to return to their homes in Chimoio. On the side of the road, he
witnessed over 200 bodies that had been washed up. Eventually, he was able to catch a ride to
Chimoio where he lives.
From what
I’ve heard, I would guess thousands have died. It’s a living nightmare. On
March 15th, Cyclone Idai made landfall near Beira, Mozambique. For 4
entire days Idai continued pressing inland striking Malawi and Zimbabwe and
finally dissipated on March 21st. Winds peaked at 120 miles per
hour.
The most
recent press release I’ve read claims 446 have died in Mozambique and 259 in
Zimbabwe. Other reports claim that 90% of all infrastructure in Beira has been
destroyed. I believe the death toll to be completely under-reported and I’ll
explain why.
First of
all, Beira is a city with an approximate population of 533,000 as of the census
in 2017. It is a coastal city with a large port and took the brunt of Idai.
Zimbabwe lay approximately 175 miles further in-land from the city of Beira. The
main district in Zimbabwe affected is Chimanimani with an approximate
population of 6,815. So, 446 / 533,000 (0.08%) die where the Cyclone first
struck land and had winds of 120 mph and was at its strongest. The Cyclone
travels 175 miles, decreases in strength, and then kills 259 / 6,815 (3.8%).
Furthermore,
I am comparing one city (Beira) to an entire region (Chimanimani). How is it
that a Cyclone travels 175 miles and kills nearly 50 times as many people in an
entire region as it is weakening when compared to a city?
If we
assume one-tenth of what Rich’s brother-in-law reports is accurate then in a
1-day period he saw at least several hundred dead bodies in one location. There
are many many more rivers in the region. With 90% of Beira’s infrastructure
gone, even more people must have died in the city as buildings collapsed.
If we
assume the city of Beira experienced the same percentage loss as the entire
region of Chimanimani, 3.8% * 533,000 = 20,254. Beira is still flooded. Power
is not restored because the substation for the city is still under water. Clean
water is gone. Disease is only just now beginning to set in. With so much
standing water, mosquitoes will breed and malaria will spread. Without hospitals
(remember, they’ve been destroyed), thousands more will die from malaria. Next
will be starvation. Corn harvests were just about to start. But for the region
of central Mozambique, they are all gone. All crops. The majority of
Mozambicans are subsistence farmers. That means they live off of what they
grow. A flood destroying their crops results in severe starvation and death of
family members.
Beira was a
large port city responsible for supply-chain for the provinces of Manica, Tete,
and Zambezia as well as for the countries of Malawi and Zimbabwe. I’ve heard
reports of fuel shortages in Tete. All imports and exports in those provinces
and countries will be negatively affected. That will further slow business and
force gas prices in those regions to rise. When gas goes up, the price of
transport goes up, and then the price of food goes up. In a region were
starvation is already imminent…
Like I
said, it is a living nightmare and I honestly believe the worst is yet to come.
My heart sunk when we spoke with Rich’s brother-in-law. We are all shaken and
distraught. One of our workers has family in Beira and has yet to hear any news
from them. We are all being faced with the realities of death and devastation
and it is just the beginning.
Right now,
we’re contacting aid agencies that are and will be working in the affected
region. We have 4-ton and 8-ton trucks. We are making plans to put together
monthly deliveries of vegetables and other supplies to send to the affected
region. We could use support. We have irrigation lines, a solar pump, a farm in
operation, and work with dozens of smallholder vegetable farmers in our region.
We need to buy more seeds, inputs, and cover gas to make deliveries to the
affected region. I’ll be linking a GoFundMe if you can help support us
financially. In the GoFundMe there is a breakdown of what your money will help
deliver to the affected region and peoples. Any amount you can help will be
appreciated.
With all of my heart,
Daniel
P.S. Update as of March 29th: some reports claim the death toll to be about one-thousand. I still believe that number to be under-reported.
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